Compliance surpluses are becoming easier and cheaper to generate, while buyers have more options and less urgency to enter the market. Prices in the FuelEU Maritime pooling market remain under pressure.
This does not necessarily mean that demand for cleaner shipping is weakening. Rather, the market is adjusting to three developments: improving biofuel economics, increasing supplies of compliance surplus, and stronger buyer bargaining power.
01 How Biofuel Blending Costs Relate to the Diesel Market
When conventional marine fuel and marine diesel prices are high, the additional cost of switching to biodiesel such as B30 or B100 can sometimes narrow. When diesel supplies are tight, vessels may also choose biofuels for operational reasons and fuel security, even if the benefits generated by FuelEU are limited.
When a vessel uses eligible low-carbon fuels that bring its fuel's lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity below the regulatory limit, it generates a positive compliance balance that can be used in pooling. The lower the cost of generating compliance surplus, the greater the downward pressure on pooling prices.
02 Dutch ZRE-A Certificates and the Rotterdam Market
The Netherlands' renewable marine fuel mechanism provides an additional incentive. Suppliers delivering eligible advanced biofuels can receive tradable ZRE-A certificates. This additional income can help make marine fuel offers in Rotterdam more competitive.
Dutch ZRE-A certificates and FuelEU pooling address different compliance obligations: qualifying for one does not automatically mean qualifying for the other. However, both can influence the same fuel purchasing decision, making some eligible biofuel blends more economical and potentially generating more FuelEU compliance surplus.
03 Diverging Marine Fuel Trends at Major Ports
Recent sales figures illustrate how local fuel economics influence where vessels bunker. Overall marine fuel sales in Rotterdam have softened, while biofuel bunkering has strengthened. By contrast, biofuel bunkering in Singapore and Antwerp–Bruges has weakened.
Local incentives, delivered fuel prices and availability all influence vessels' choice of bunkering location. These trends do not prove that volumes have shifted directly between ports, nor do they mean that every tonne of biofuel generates FuelEU compliance surplus. They do, however, indicate that the cost of generating compliance surplus can vary significantly by location.
04 More Surplus Supply and Stronger Competition Among Sellers
As more eligible low-carbon fuel is used and the market becomes more familiar with pooling, increasing volumes of positive compliance balances are entering the market. At the same time, more suppliers and intermediaries are competing for transactions.
Trading activity has picked up following the summer slowdown, but improved liquidity has not strengthened prices. Instead, sellers seeking to monetise their compliance surplus face increasingly price-sensitive buyers and must offer more competitive terms.
05 Buyers Have More Time and More Options
Following the end of the first compliance cycle, shipowners have more time to calculate their obligations and compare buying compliance surplus through pooling with using low-carbon fuels themselves.
Moreover, the initial greenhouse gas intensity reduction requirements remain relatively modest until 2029, leaving shipowners with less urgency to switch to more expensive alternatives. Without the need to enter the market immediately, buyers can compare prices, negotiate terms or even defer purchases. This has eroded some of the scarcity premium that previously supported pooling prices.
06 What Does This Mean for the Market?
Weaker FuelEU compliance surplus prices primarily reflect a repricing of compliance costs and benefits; they do not, by themselves, establish that shipping decarbonisation is slowing.
Diesel shortages can encourage vessels to use more biofuel. But if this also reduces the cost of generating compliance surplus, pooling prices will come under downward pressure.
However, lower pooling revenues may weaken the commercial viability of newer, higher-cost fuels such as liquefied biomethane, which rely more heavily on compliance revenues to support their economics.
Tecway Maritime FuelEU Pooling
Tecway Maritime helps shipowners and ship management companies achieve lower-cost compliance through FuelEU Pooling.
- We match vessels with compliance surpluses to vessels with compliance deficits, enabling surplus holders to earn revenue and deficit holders to reduce their compliance costs effectively.
- Through pooling, FuelEU compliance costs can be reduced to less than 40% of the penalty amount.
About Tecway Maritime
Established in 2016, Tecway Maritime Technology Limited is the Tecway Group's specialist team for green shipping and maritime consultancy. The Group's parent company, Tecway International Limited, was founded in 1993 and has served the global maritime industry for more than three decades.
Tecway Maritime focuses on shipping companies' low-carbon transition needs. Its services include EU ETS (EUA) and FuelEU compliance consultancy, support for green hydrogen projects in shipping, intelligent vessel dry-docking solutions, FGSS services, supply and technical support for the Cylinder Liner Diameter Measurement (CLDM) system, and export solutions for Chinese-made marine equipment. Drawing on its global network across Asia, the Middle East and Europe, Tecway Maritime is committed to delivering reliable, high-quality and sustainable solutions that help shipping companies respond to regulatory changes and capture new opportunities in green shipping.
Website: tecwayintl.com
Telephone: 021-6917 7751
Email: madelena.ko@tecwayintl.com