Shipping carbon compliance | report review
DNV MARITIME FORECAST TO 2050 · 2026
Global rules are not yet settled, but regional regulation has already changed the real cost of operating a ship. For shipowners, today's efficiency retrofits, newbuilding decisions and fuel choices will shape fleet competitiveness for more than a decade.
DNV published the tenth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050 in August 2026 and discussed regulation, energy efficiency and the market for low greenhouse gas (low GHG) fuels further in a webinar on 15 September. Drawing on the webinar and DNV's public material, this article sets out the judgements most worth noting and what they mean for fleet decisions.
Three conclusions first
1. Depending on how IMO rules develop, fuel demand and the economics of fleet investment could diverge significantly.
2. Energy efficiency is a priority that creates value across all scenarios, but the specific return has to be calculated ship by ship.
3. Being capable of running on alternative fuels is not the same as actually using low GHG fuels; demand signals and supply costs remain the key constraints.
01 · REGULATION | IMO rules are unsettled: how do four futures affect the fleet?
DNV sets out four scenarios based on different outcomes for the IMO Net-Zero Framework. These are scenario assumptions used to assess risk, not a firm prediction of any one outcome.
Scenario 1: the global framework is formally adopted
If the framework is approved along current lines, a single global requirement would give a stronger signal for efficiency investment and low GHG fuel demand. The webinar model assumes the relevant mechanisms could start to have a real effect around 2029.
Scenario 2: a phased agreement
The IMO could also reach a first-stage arrangement on the technical content where consensus is easier, and continue negotiating the more contested economic mechanisms such as the fund and the use of revenues. DNV sees this as a plausible practical compromise.
Scenario 3: no near-term agreement, with talks resumed later
If consensus remains absent in the near term, regional schemes may continue to strengthen while a global framework returns to negotiation in the future. Shipowners would need to manage the interface between current regional rules and potential global rules at the same time.
Scenario 4: a prolonged deadlock
If the global mechanism stalls for a long period, the importance of EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and UK ETS may increase, and compliance requirements would become more fragmented. The cost performance of the same technical solution would then differ more from one operating region to another.
The webinar noted that the disputes centre on the reduction trajectory for the greenhouse gas fuel intensity (GFI) requirement, the fund and revenue arrangements, and flexible compliance mechanisms such as surplus units and remedial units. For shipowners, the point is not to guess the outcome of the negotiations, but to be clear about where the fleet operates, which rules it is exposed to, and when investment is needed.
02 · EFFICIENCY | Available today, but a case study is not a general return
While regulation and fuel prices remain unclear, burning one tonne less fuel usually means lower fuel cost, and may also reduce the related emissions and compliance cost. DNV therefore treats energy efficiency as a measure worth assessing first across regulatory scenarios.
Case | hydrodynamic retrofit of an approximately 5,000 TEU container ship
Taking a container ship of about 5,000 TEU as an example, DNV calculates annual fuel savings of around 16% from optimising the hull or bow, the propeller and the propulsion system. The retrofit investment is about USD 2.4 million; on the case assumptions, it is paid back through fuel savings in roughly one to four years, before counting any reduction in GHG compliance cost. These results apply only to the case as defined: actual returns depend on ship condition, trading route, fuel prices and implementation cost, and cannot be transferred directly to other vessels.
Wind-assisted propulsion is also being applied more widely. The webinar noted that around 90 ships worldwide have such systems installed and in operation, with a broadly similar number on order; savings are clearly affected by route, season and weather, however, and should be assessed as a long-term average and a probability distribution rather than a fixed assumed percentage.
03 · FUEL USE | More alternative-fuel ships, still limited low GHG use
Webinar data shows that since 2020 the tonnage of ships capable of running on alternative fuels has grown roughly tenfold, with an increase of close to sixfold by number of ships (the statistics exclude some gas carriers). Yet there is still a clear gap between "able to use" and "in use".
Dual-fuel ships may continue to consume large volumes of conventional fuel, and the methanol used by methanol-fuelled ships may come from fossil sources. Orders and installed capacity therefore cannot be read directly as low GHG fuel consumption, still less as actual emissions reductions.
As DNV puts it, a ship being capable of alternative fuels does not mean it is already using low GHG fuel. Regional regulation, customers' willingness to pay a green premium, fixed trading routes and bunkering conditions together determine whether fuel capability is ultimately converted into real demand.
04 · FUEL MARKET | Supply and demand: the question is not only "can it be produced"
The scenario range in DNV's 2026 report puts shipping's low GHG fuel demand at 4 to 22 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030, and 33 to 185 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2050. The width of that range is precisely the point: the regulatory outcome will change the size of the market significantly.
On the supply side, the project pipeline announced to date is not the same as production actually coming on stream. DNV notes that the existing project list implies a theoretical upper limit for global supply of about 270 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030; delays and other uncertainties may bring actual supply below that figure, and shipping also has to compete with aviation, road transport and industry for the same fuels and feedstocks. That global supply ceiling should not be read as "all available to shipping".
Price is another threshold. DNV's calculations for different fuel pathways in 2030 put the cost of each tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) avoided at roughly USD 180 to 1,290. Given that cost spread, a stable and predictable regulatory demand signal and long-term offtake arrangements often do more to determine whether investment goes ahead than announcements of new projects.
Intensity requirements such as FuelEU Maritime, potential IMO economic mechanisms and related incentives will all affect what shipping companies are willing to pay.
05 · FLEET STRATEGY | Scenario analysis: put technical choices back into fleet operation
DNV suggests starting from ship type, age, trading route, operating region and charter model, and then comparing different regulatory, fuel price and supply scenarios within a single cost and risk framework. The aim is not to identify the cheapest fuel in every future, but to identify solutions that remain resilient across several futures.
The webinar compared a conventional fuel oil and scrubber route with a dual-fuel LNG route for a VLCC fleet: in a rapid decarbonisation scenario, the case calculation gives the LNG route an average break-even day rate about 14% lower by 2050; in a scenario where regulation advances more slowly, the conventional route may be more cost competitive. That day rate includes fuel, operating, capital and GHG compliance costs; the 14% is a case result under specific assumptions, not a conclusion that LNG ships are generally superior.
Existing ships do not simply have to wait for replacement either. Efficiency retrofits, wind-assisted propulsion, use of drop-in biofuel or synthetic diesel where conditions allow, and fuel system conversion where the economics work, may all be options; fuel availability, life-cycle GHG performance and long-term supply volumes still need to be verified case by case.
Returns are also constrained by commercial arrangements. Under some charter structures the owner pays for the energy-saving retrofit while the charterer pays the fuel bill, so the benefit does not sit with the party funding the work.
Closing | Secure what is certain, and keep the options open
The point of this report is not to recommend a "winning fuel", but to remind shipowners to look at regulation, the fuel market and fleet operation together.
In the near term, ship-by-ship efficiency and drydock assessments can take priority; in the medium term, build a multi-scenario fuel and compliance cost model; and in newbuilding or major retrofit decisions, keep room to adjust for future fuel supply and rule changes.
Sources
- DNV Maritime, Maritime Forecast to 2050 (2026 edition), public material: dnv.com/maritime/maritime-forecast/
- DNV Maritime, official press release of 27 August 2026, "Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures".
- DNV Maritime, webinar of 15 September 2026, "Maritime Forecast to 2050 – Key insights on shipping's energy transition".
About Tecway Maritime
Tecway Maritime Technology Limited was established in 2016 as the Tecway Group team dedicated to green shipping and maritime consultancy services. The group parent company, Tecway International Limited, was founded in 1993 and has worked in the global maritime industry for more than thirty years.
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